Meeting Abstract

S4-1.4  Jan. 5  A fluctuation-induced mechanism for cycling behavior in disease dynamics NEWMAN, T J*; ANTONOVICS, J; MCKANE, A J; Arizona State University; University of Virginia; University of Manchester

We discuss a new mechanism for oscillations in host-pathogen populations based on an amplification of the intrinsic stochasticity of demographic and disease-transmission events. This mechanism can trigger oscillations in systems which, when modeled deterministically, fail to exhibit cycling. We also discuss the influence of this new mechanism on explicitly spatial host-pathogen systems.