Meeting Abstract

P3-153    Challenges in predicting heat wave impacts to biodiversity Burger, JR; Cook, KJ*; Hughes, H; Breshears, DD; University of Kentucky; University of Kentucky; University of Arizona; University of Arizona kiju.cook@uky.edu

Under changing climate, biodiversity is more impacted by climate extremes rather than mean shifts. Because heatwaves are occurring much more frequently even with small mean shifts, heatwaves are becoming a key driver of biotic change and ecosystem tipping points. With the exception of well documented impacts on humans, we lack a basic understanding of the lethal temperatures for most of biodiversity. Here we i) show data highlighting the increased frequency of heatwaves, ii) summarize the limited and biased physiological data of lethal temperatures across biota, and iii) propose a research agenda for predicting lethal impacts of heatwaves on biodiversity. Ethical issues precluding most experimentation and a bias and lack of data highlight the challenges of predicting heat wave impacts. Documented observations of heat wave deaths across biota are needed for projecting future impacts. Theoretical models with high-quality eco-physiological data are needed to predict the limits to life and ecosystem-state changes that will result from increasingly frequent heat waves.